This is the 2nd Tuesday of the Month.
Topic: The Pandemic, Ukraine and Europe’s Derussification: Supercharging a Global Energy Crisis
Speaker: Mr. David Edick, Jr., global political economist and Principal of Core Global Advisory
CPE Credit: 1.0 hours
The meeting is free for all FENG members and their guests. For those desiring CPE credit, 1.0 hours CPE credit will be given out, with the procedure for this to be reviewed in the meeting. You MUST attend.
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. This historic event shocked global energy markets, with the epicenter being Europe – given Europe’s dependence on Russian energy supplies. This shock occurred against the backdrop of already rising prices and tightening markets for fossil fuels caused by the interaction between underinvestment in energy as well as demand and supply turbulence caused by the pandemic. Natural gas and electricity prices were already at eye-watering record levels across Europe prior to Russia’s invasion.
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union launched a series of energy-related sanctions on Russia and approved a broad, Russia-specific energy policy framework that can best be described as derussification of Europe’s energy supply for natural gas, oil, coal and electricity. This profound reorientation of Europe’s energy supply chains will have powerful impacts on energy markets around the world for years to come – including the United States. Derussification not only presents a direct challenge to Europe’s decarbonization efforts, it also presents a clash between the imperatives of energy security and decarbonization.
Across Europe, prices for natural gas and electricity have risen explosively to levels many multiples above historic prices ranges. Outlier pricing behavior and supply instability in natural gas and electricity markets have played havoc with hedging strategies, working capital finance, and financial relations between traders, suppliers and consumers. Several major European utilities have sought and received government bailouts as governments worry about the very real potential for cascading corporate failures in the energy-finance ecosystem.
Price shocks have begun to reach corporate, household, and municipal consumers – with significant political turbulence already emerging. For business, these epic sustained price shocks are resulting in emerging demand destruction across energy-intensive sectors of the European economy (including fertilizer, petrochemicals, and metals) on a scale that raises the specter of effective deindustrialization, as European industrial competitiveness may be permanently reduced. Given the high degree of economic interconnectedness in today's world, and given the global nature of worldwide energy markets, the effects will not be limited to the countries of Europe.
David Edick Jr. will describe and detail Europe’s energy derussification policies and identify some of the notable impacts around the world – including the US natural gas and refined fuels markets. David will also detail some of the financial shocks hitting energy suppliers in Europe, particularly utilities.
While none of this is good news, this talk and discussion will enable us all to make some sense out of what is happening in connection with the confluence of the above events. David will address these complex issues, drawing on his 30+ years expertise in energy, commodities, logistics and geopolitics.
The discussion will give us some powerful analysis and deeper understanding of the economic and financial effects of the above confluence of events -- effects on our companies, on our countries, on ourselves. A talk not to be missed.
About our speaker:
David Edick Jr. is Principal at Core Global Advisory, a consultancy focused on political risk, commodities, and market strategy. David has over 30 years' experience in trade, investment banking, and NGO relations in Russia. He has worked abroad in Russia in the food trade and investment banking sectors, and in Mexico in the seafood export development business.
David also serves as a member of the Energy Committee for the Western Regional Partnership, a collaborative between the Department of Defense and representatives of Federal agencies and State and Tribal leadership in 6 states of the US southwest. He also serves on the Natural Resources Committee and the Tribal Engagement Working Group.
Drawing on his global perspective and experience, David has lectured widely for more than 15 years on energy, finance and geopolitics.
Long active in San Diego's international civil society community, David is 3-term Past President of the San Diego World Affairs Council. He is also 6-term Past President of the San Diego International Sister Cities Association, and 7-term Past President of the San Diego - Vladivostok (Russia) Sister City Society. In 2015 he served as Chair of the Steering Committee which led the establishment of San Diego’s 16th sister city relationship (Panama City, Panama). David is a longtime participant in the international collaborative Pacific Rim Park program founded by James Hubbell.
David graduated from San Diego State University in 1985 with a custom-designed, cross-disciplinary degree in Global Political Economy. David and his family live in Rancho San Diego, California.
Similar to David's other presentations to the San Diego FENG in the past few years -- Fracking and US Energy Independence, the Natural Gas Pricing Crunch and Inflation, and the Global Economic Implications of the War in Ukraine -- this will be a talk with active Q&A and lots of facts, analytical insights and new understanding of some complex issues. Join us Tuesday, when David will address the above issues and more in this highly engaging and energetic presentation.
Again, all FENG members are welcome to register. You are free to invite outside guests, as well, especially those who you think could directly benefit from gaining an understanding of the Ukrainian war's impact on global supply chains and the economy -- or who can contribute their own insights to the discussion.
Please contact Dan Ruchman, [email protected], directly if you have any questions or wish to advise him about your inviting an outside guest.
We hope to see you at our virtual San Diego FENG meeting on Tuesday the 13th.